Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

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• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in South America
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Peru
  • Bolivia
  • Brazil
  • Chile
  • Ecuador
  • Argentina
  • Colombia
  • Suriname
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Venezuela
  • Guyana

Analysis of the most affected countries in South America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Peru⮸

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $868,675$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,022,694.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 151.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,022,694.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,759$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,406.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.4)}}\) (asimptote \(35,406.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $50,860$ on 2020-10-19

Bolivia⮸

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $139,890$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{142,508.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.3)}}\) (asimptote \(142,508.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,502$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,785.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 147.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,785.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $26,431$ on 2020-10-19

Brazil⮸

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,250,727$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,453,269.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 139.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,453,269.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $154,176$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{156,688.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 119.8)}}\) (asimptote \(156,688.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $570,158$ on 2020-10-19

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $493,305$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{452,012.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 108.6)}}\) (asimptote \(452,012.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13,676$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,709.9}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 108.3)}}\) (asimptote \(12,709.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,608$ on 2020-10-19

Ecuador⮸

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $153,423$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{175,177.9}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 142.3)}}\) (asimptote \(175,177.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12,395$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,858.6}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 209.3)}}\) (asimptote \(23,858.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,841$ on 2020-10-19

Argentina⮸

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,002,662$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,464,554.1}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 196.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,464,554.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26,716$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{92,729.8}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 238.5)}}\) (asimptote \(92,729.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $171,981$ on 2020-10-19

Colombia⮸

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $965,883$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{998,209.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 158.4)}}\) (asimptote \(998,209.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,102$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,098.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 144.4)}}\) (asimptote \(30,098.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $68,820$ on 2020-10-19

Suriname⮸

Population $586,632$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,133$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,171.6}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 150.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,171.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $109$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{119.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 143.2)}}\) (asimptote \(119.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $65$ on 2020-10-19

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Suriname recovered 94%
Peru recovered 70%
Colombia recovered 59%
Bolivia recovered 57%
Venezuela recovered 49%
Guyana recovered 21%

Venezuela⮸

Population $28,435,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $86,636$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{97,605.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 169.5)}}\) (asimptote \(97,605.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $736$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{872.5}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 161.0)}}\) (asimptote \(872.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,206$ on 2020-10-19

Guyana⮸

Population $786,552$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,765$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,262.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 208.4)}}\) (asimptote \(6,262.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $111$ on 2020-10-19

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $905$ on 2020-10-19