Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $868,675$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,022,694.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 151.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,022,694.4\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33,759$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,406.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.4)}}\) (asimptote \(35,406.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $50,860$ on 2020-10-19
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $139,890$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{142,508.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.3)}}\) (asimptote \(142,508.8\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,502$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,785.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 147.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,785.9\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $26,431$ on 2020-10-19
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,250,727$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,453,269.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 139.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,453,269.1\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $154,176$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{156,688.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 119.8)}}\) (asimptote \(156,688.5\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $570,158$ on 2020-10-19
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $493,305$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{452,012.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 108.6)}}\) (asimptote \(452,012.1\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $13,676$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,709.9}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 108.3)}}\) (asimptote \(12,709.9\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,608$ on 2020-10-19
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $153,423$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{175,177.9}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 142.3)}}\) (asimptote \(175,177.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $12,395$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,858.6}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 209.3)}}\) (asimptote \(23,858.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,841$ on 2020-10-19
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,002,662$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,464,554.1}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 196.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,464,554.1\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $26,716$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{92,729.8}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 238.5)}}\) (asimptote \(92,729.8\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $171,981$ on 2020-10-19
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $965,883$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{998,209.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 158.4)}}\) (asimptote \(998,209.3\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,102$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,098.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 144.4)}}\) (asimptote \(30,098.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $68,820$ on 2020-10-19
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,133$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,171.6}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 150.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,171.6\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $109$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{119.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 143.2)}}\) (asimptote \(119.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $65$ on 2020-10-19